10/26/24 - Max Holloway vs Ilia Topuria:
'Tis the season for PPV’s worthy of my money. Decent fights all around on this card. Specifically I’m looking forward to watching Max Holloway big brother Ilia Topuria for 5 rounds, and seeing if Rob Whittaker still has The Reaper in him and can put down kinda oddly still unproven but ever dangerous Khamzat Chimaev.
Nothing against Ilia, but he’s just the latest young arrogant (well earned arrogance, see below) guy who hasn’t tasted defeat, thinks he’s invincible, and in this specific case, drastically overrates his finishing prowess. Where as Max is already HOF-certified, increasing his fight XP for the love of the game, not yet past his prime, and is at the point in his career where he still has the physical ability to match the years of wisdom gained from fighting the highest level guys.
Matchup wise, Max has the size and reach advantage, and Ilia is slightly quicker with more finishing power, but not concerningly so. Ilia’s expertise seems to lie in his ability to position himself well and find his shot when the opportunity presents itself. But Max has too much fight IQ for that, and presents the most tiresome onslaught of constant pressure in MMA, as well as enough damaging power to make guys quickly turn to mush as the rounds progress. And I see that happening here. Ilia will get too excited chasing the finish that never comes, as Max patiently does what The Blessed Express does and peppers Topuria with varied strikes.
Maybe Topuria is faking us all out, and his offer to “stand and bang in the center” at start the fight is just a ruse. I’m not familiar enough with Max on the ground to know what, if any, challenge he can truly offer down there, but it definitely seems to be the best area to attack. Especially considering Topuria is known to be an excellent wrestler by MMA standards. And I just can’t see Ilia finding his striking range adequately enough to stand with Max for 5 rounds and not end up with a mess of a bloodied & battered face. So for Ilia to have a chance at retaining his belt, I’d say it’d be wise to proceed with a good ‘ol wrestlefuck.
As for the Rob vs Khamzat fight, I have absolutely no idea what will happen and it’s great. I can see Rob dog walking Khamzat for 5 rounds with his great movement and range finding ability, just as likely as I see Khamzat getting Rob to the ground at will and finishing the fight down there. I’m rooting for Rob as he makes one more title run, and it would be cool to see someone finally snuff the enigma that is The Wolf & and show everyone he’s just another average MW with a limited skill set that was shielded by outrageously (attempting) life as a WW.
9/29/24 - Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr.:
In short, and to keep with age old generic fight talk, I'll use weapons as an analogy: if Israel Adesanya is a sniper, then Alex Pereira is a shotgun and Khalil Rountree is that grenade launcher that can be attached to shotguns. I think this fight will be closer than your average filthy casual would predict. There will be zero grappling, no mixing of the martial arts, and a lot of pain.
We're getting a LHW Championship 4oz-gloved-kickboxing-match between two of the heaviest sets of hands & best strikers in MMA. I can't think of any other matchup where Khalil didn't have the power advantage, and he's probably the most violent Mortal Kombat-esque finisher in the UFC. But he doesn't put guys to sleep instantly as Alex does. That's purely a testament to Alex's ethereal power vs. any detraction from Khalil. It's a fight between two dudes who don't go to decisions willingly. And while some matchups between high level strikers can end up in boring decision stalemates, I don't see that happening here due to that amount of ammo being carried into the fight.
As far as who wins, I'd say Alex has the slight advantage as the better striker, with more power and better range. But Khalil isn't far enough behind in technique or power for it to make a major difference in the matchup. Plus he's quicker n thicker as a true LHW, has great defense and doesn't tend to get hit cleanly. His main losses have involved anything to do with a grappler. So I think it'll mainly come down to octagon control and range management (duh). If Khalil can beat up Alex's legs, get in & out quickly, work the body and not just chase headshots, he has a real chance to take the belt. I don't put it past him either. Khalil is a smart fighter with a good fight IQ (when there's no grappling involved). Easier said than done though, and Alex doesn't really have to make any major adjustments going in to the fight. He could do with getting hit a little less. I appreciate Alex's measured, yet persistent aggression. But if there's anyone he's faced yet who could do real damage with those shots that sneak through, it's definitely Khalil.
All that being said, the fight's in freakin' Salt Lake City at elevation, so it really comes down to who has better PEDs and doesn't gas first.
8/16/24 - The Craig Jones Invitational 2024!:
The inaugural Craig Jones Invitational starts right now & I got time to type during the intro stuff, so let’s have it…
World renowned just as much for being a great character (see pic) as his world class jiu jitsu, Craig Jones dropped a surprise NoGi Jiu Jitsu tournament announcement on us earlier this year, with two weight classes >80kg and <80kg, both competing for the $1 million top prize. And all competitors receiving $10,001. Craig will also compete in a long awaited super match with renowned grappler Gabi Garcia. With all proceeds going to charity (Fair Fight Foundation).
Craig did this to further contribute to the growth and popularity of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, specifically NoGi, which is more fan friendly and prone to catching on as a mainstream sport (than the traditional gi based version). He knows from firsthand experience how much it sucks to be world class in your craft and not get paid, so his goal is to keep jiu jitsu gay and everyone well paid for their efforts.
But he also scheduled the tourney in direct conflict, and set the fighter pay in direct competition to (in spite of) ADCC, the long running BJJ tourney I’m too casual to know about, other than it’s popular and the owner doesn’t pay the competitors nada relative to what the promotion is working with. You also know the guys a corn because rather than increasing pay or competing back with better stuff, he threatened Craig and whined about it online like a real winner.
I’ve trained in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Muay Thai, and dabbled in other martial arts over the past several years, and still train NoGi jiu jitsu. So not only am I excited that I get to see high level competitors compete in my favorite sport, and get paid well for it; it’s tremendous seeing Craig continue to use his juice to do good in the world and sporting world. I like when good people do good things.
Given the high stakes of the tourney I doubt anyone’s tapping (maybe to knee bars), and I never want to see anyone get hurt, but it means everyone’s going balls to the wall, and that’s always fun to see. Especially since they’re utilizing the latest meta in combat sports, the slanted wall mat thing here (see below), and everyone anticipates it will contribute to a higher pace of action with less interruptions from going off the mats or getting pinned against a cage.
All that to say: if the CJI can’t make jiu jitsu casual friendly, increase it’s mainstream popularity and therefore athlete pay, I’m not hopeful anything will. And that’s fine as most things as niche anyways, and this has a high likelihood of going to a bunch of wrestling heavy decisions. But selfishly, I’d love to be able to keep watching CJI’s, so I hope it works out!
8/14/24: Izzy vs. DDP at UFC 305:
Predictions are useless & I don't gamble, but for the sake of discussion, if you put a gun to my head I'm taking DDP.
Adesanya is my boi and I'm rooting for him, but I don't see him finding a way to overcome Du Plessis' relentless offense, sturdy chin (for now), and unlimited cardio (PEDs, allegedly per someone). Compounded even further when you account for Izzy coming off a tough loss, during which he found no way to overcome constant pressure and 1-2s. Sean presented a challenge in that Izzy was going to have to channel old contender "I'm ready to die" vs Kelvin Gastelum dog in him, and he did not. Fair enough. He bounced back well against Alex Pereira in their middleweight title rematch, so I know he still has it in him, but DDP is a different beast and still in his prime. I don't think Du Plessis fears Izzy's striking (ignorantly so), and will bum rush in just as he always does, and get clipped on the way in. If Adesanya's overdue time to rest, bulking (PEDs, allegedly per someone) and having to return as challenger against a white dude claiming Africa work in his favor; & trigger that dawg in him, he has a chance to KO DDP fairly easily. DDP doesn't have one quitter hitter power, so I can see Izzy willing to eat a few in this one.
The other and more likely (in my non-professional opinion) outcome is: DDP eats a few shots coming in, mixes up his game well and utilizes takedowns and his vicious ground and pound to wear Izzy down and retain the belt via TKO in round 1 or 2.
I didn't watch DDP vs Sean because why would I. But it seems Sean lured him into a typical boring Sean fight, so I won't blame DDP for that one. But if he does fear Izzy's striking and fights timid at all in this one, I can see him getting Paulo Costa'd and put down in a fairly clean striking clinic. We'll know within the first minute of round 1 which way it's going. The second these guys start playing Izzy's game rather than leading the dance themselves, it never turns out well for them.
